Projected climate change and its impacts on glaciers and water resources in the headwaters of the Tarim River, NW China/Kyrgyzstan

Abstract Glacierised river catchments are highly sensitive to climate change, while large populations may depend on their water resources. The irrigation agriculture and the communities along Tarim River, NW China, strongly discharge from glacierised surrounding Taklamakan Desert. While recent increasing has been beneficial for agricultural sector, future runoff under change is uncertain. We assess three scenarios by forcing two glacio-hydrological models with output of eight general circulation models. have different glaciological modelling approaches but were both calibrated glacier mass balance observations. Projected changes in climate, cover examined over twenty-first century generally point warmer wetter conditions. model ensemble projects median temperature precipitation increases + 1.9–5.3 °C 9–24%, respectively, until end compared 1971–2000 reference period. Glacier area projected shrink 15–73% (model medians, range scenarios), depending catchment. River first increase about 20% Aksu subsequent decreases up 20%. In contrast, drier Hotan Yarkant 15–60% towards century. uncertainties mainly relate limited observations constrain Sustainable resource management will be key avert risks associated uncertainties.